YOUR INPUT, PLEASE:
The TARP auditor says that the accelerated dealer closings by GM and Chrysler may not have been necessary and were not worth the additional unemployment. Agree?
Yes.
No.
It's complicated.
Posted by AUSTIN POWERTRAIN on 7/30/2010 4:57 PM
[WEBMASTER'S NOTE: Asked to provide some input for our website on a recent announcement by Ford, Austin Powertrain provided the webmaster with two potential posts. He preferred the first, for its concise expression of his views. It read, in its entirety, “Hi, the Lincoln MKZ Hybrid is awesome. I want one soooo bad! NOT.” For a thorough analysis of Ford’s plan to forego a price premium on the hybrid version of the Lincoln MKZ, see below.]

ARTICLE #2 - THE LONG VERSION
Ford recently touted that the Lincoln MKZ Hybrid, going on sale this fall, will be priced at $35,180, which is the same sticker price that will appear on the conventional gasoline-powered MKZ. Some journalists and bloggers reacted with surprise when this news came out, but my first thought was, "So what? It should be the same price as the regular MKZ."
Posted by JULIE CRIDLER on 7/28/2010 5:29 PM
The development of a charging infrastructure for EVs is taking on a life of its own and styling / design is becoming a competitive differentiator even in advance of the market really taking off. It is becoming clear that the seemingly mundane task of recharging is going to become an area of new opportunity for both vehicle manufactures (at least those that are interested in getting involved in the charging infrastructure segment of the market) and outside companies. Nissan’s heavy involvement in establishing charging technology, as discussed in an earlier blog post, is a good example of this.
Posted by KIM KORTH on 7/27/2010 2:52 PM
A few days ago, I did a posting regarding our enthusiastic support of General Motors purchase of AmeriCredit finance.  Our support was based on the importance of the subprime borrower to the automotive industry.  In Friday’s New York Times, Joe Nocera wrote a terrific article entitled, “Credit Score is the Tyrant in Lending.” Here is a point from the beginning of his column: 
Posted by MELISSA ANDERSON on 7/26/2010 9:57 PM
It isn’t such a great summer so far for the West Michigan Whitecaps, the Class A minor league baseball team affiliated with the Detroit Tigers. With 9 wins and 20 losses, they are running considerably behind their 2009 win-loss percentage of .593. Fortunately, we have other home teams to root for here in West Michigan, and two of them, Gentex Corp. and JCI, reported quarterly financials this week that give much to cheer about.
Posted by KIM KORTH AND TRACY SCHNEITER on 7/23/2010 1:10 PM
Yesterday General Motors announced the purchase of AmeriCredit Corp. This will re-create a captive finance arm for GM and will allow them to get back into financing a much broader number of American consumers. Both GM and Chrysler have been severely restricted in their lending practices for the last year as they have had to rely on Ally Financial (the old GMAC) whose lending criteria are as stringent as that of a commercial bank. We were very excited when we heard this news as the ability to finance a broader range of consumers is a critical step in a return to normalcy for the automotive industry. So, imagine our surprise when we discovered that most of the press coverage and public opinion is overwhelmingly against the deal.




Posted by JULIE CRIDLER on 7/22/2010 7:15 AM
One of the concerns potential buyers have about electric and range-extended hybrid vehicles is the distance that can be driven between charges. But, there is another potential obstacle in the mind of the consumer, and that is the life expectancy of the battery pack and the cost to repair or replace. Most EV companies spend considerable effort touting their vehicle’s range potential, but few have directly addressed the battery issue.
Posted by TRACY SCHNEITER on 7/21/2010 2:49 PM
With much news lately regarding the continued pessimistic outlook towards economic indicators such as the lack of a speedy jobs recovery or the need for some sort of miracle housing cure, I thought it was time to give a snapshot from IRN’s most recent vehicle production forecast. Given the context of where we have been, i.e. in the economic basement of 2009, things are certainly looking up. Our industry has weathered the worst of what had been unsustainably low volumes and has been steadily restocking inventories ever since. 
Posted by MELISSA ANDERSON on 7/19/2010 4:48 PM
Our recent poll posed the question of whether our readers are fans of the trend toward dropping product names in favor of alphanumerics. This was prompted by the news that Kia is considering changing some names, i.e. making the Optima the K5 instead, re-naming the Cadenza the K7, and the Forte the K3. Hyundai Motor vice chairman Chung Eui-sun says that alphanumerics can increase the strength of an auto brand, but do we agree?
Posted by TRACY SCHNEITER on 7/16/2010 4:06 PM
 According to a Ford spokesperson, substantial damage to rail lines from recent storms in Mexico has left Ford having to reroute shipments of the highly popular 2011 Ford Fiesta.  Ford expects shipments to be delayed up to two weeks, which is quite a shame.  The Fiesta is the ultra-fuel efficient, B-segment vehicle that is being manufactured in Ford’s Cuautitlan facility and already has waiting lists at dealers.  Ford is heavily relying on both this new Fiesta and the upcoming redesigned Focus to continue to lift its 2010 and 2011 profits for the North American region and help fund development costs for additional programs going forward.
Posted by KIM KORTH AND TRACY SCHNEITER on 7/15/2010 4:48 PM
Given the fact that we still get almost daily calls regarding Chrysler, it is probably a good time for an IRN update on their outlook.  The key question we are perpetually asked is “Are they going to survive?” A series of additional questions normally follow such as:
• “We have been actively moving away from Chrysler but we are still seeing new opportunities. Should we change our strategy?”
• “We really like the new regime at Chrysler. Great communication, honest attempts to resolve differences, beginning to feel like the old Stallkamp days. While I hated them during the Nardelli period, now I would really like to see them succeed.”
• “We are seeing a ton of opportunity at Chrysler right now but my boss (or my private equity owner) is very reluctant to support anything relating to Chrysler. Should I change their minds, and if so, how?”




Posted by IRN DEPARTMENT OF LIGHTER SIDES on 7/15/2010 8:42 AM
Faithful readers know that we at IRN were quite taken with the original Kia Soul commercial featuring hip hamsters in a hot red Kia Soul cruising past humdrum hamsters spinning on their cage wheels. A large part of its charm was the element of surprise and creativity in making the point that this vehicle was something out of the ordinary. The question now is, 'do the hamsters have legs?' in the advertising sense of the phrase. For some of us, it's time to move on... Watch the latest iteration below and tell us what you think - does this commercial work for you?
Posted by JULIE CRIDLER on 7/14/2010 2:32 PM
Recently introduced legislation, the Electric Vehicle Deployment Act of 2010, lays the groundwork for a community-based strategy for rolling out electric vehicles and increasing their market penetration on a national scale. If the legislation is enacted, there will be between 5 and 15 communities selected to encourage the deployment of electric vehicles through a series of incentive programs, tax credits, and financial assistance initiatives that are designed to bring the financial benefits closer to the point of sale. For example, in the deployment communities the $7,500 federal tax credit is increased to $10,000 and can even be transferred to a dealer so the purchase price of the vehicle could be accordingly reduced. Other examples of benefits afforded the deployment communities include funding for projects to bring a public charging infrastructure online more quickly and an extension of the federal tax credit for installing a home charger (extended through 2016 vs. 2012) among other things.
Posted by KIM KORTH on 7/12/2010 11:35 AM
For the last year, IRN has been counseling our clients that the days of relative stability and predictability in the economy are gone and we are entering a period of much higher volatility. The last couple of weeks are certainly a case in point. In terms of the stock market, the first week in July saw the worst weekly decline in the market since the recovery began in mid 2009. With continued worries about the European debt crisis, the mixed signals on the U.S. economy, and several days of hundred-point drops in the Dow before the 4th of July holiday, many people were convinced the market rally had finally ended and we were headed into the dreaded “double dip” recession.  As you know, not only did the stock market stop its decline last week, it had three of the best days in history for stock market performance in July.  Go figure.
Posted by TRACY SCHNEITER on 7/6/2010 4:42 PM
June automotive sales posted a solid 16% gain over 2009 sales but were off by nearly 11% from the previous month of May 2010.  IRN believes that aggressive sales incentives and increased financing offerings in May brought many consumers to the buying table.  While over 5.5 million vehicles have been sold in the first six months of 2010 compared to only 4.8 million in 2009 (the ‘Great Recession’), this year is a bumpy year at best. 
Posted by KIM KORTH on 7/2/2010 5:45 PM
During the dark days of last year, many industry participants predicted a massive downsizing of the supplier industry. Some analysts predicted as much as 30-40% of suppliers would not survive the dramatic downturn in sales of the first half of 2009. As many of you know, IRN never believed that was likely to happen (for a variety of reasons) and while there were a large number of bankruptcies and liquidations between October of 2008 and June of 2009, most of the supply base survived. After this massive “cleansing” of the supply base failed to occur, many of these same analysts argued that many suppliers were able to survive by basically mothballing their facilities. The real test, they claimed, would be when production started to ramp up again and weaker suppliers would be unable to get access to credit to support the upturn. We were definitely going to see a second and bigger wave of bankruptcies. So what happened?


HOT TOPICS: SUPPLIER STRESS
Posted by MELISSA ANDERSON on 6/19/2010 8:25:08 AM
The results of IRN's 2010 materials pricing survey show how the environment has changed since our first survey on this subject in 2008. Suppliers have done a great deal to protect themselves in this area, and with good reason. The report covers what suppliers are expecting in pricing trends; whether they are pursuing cost recovery and in what form; how customers are responding; and other topics. It includes many nuances that will help companies evaluate their own activities and provide insight to interested observers on the dynamics of raw material supply. Order your copy of the report for US$99 by sending an email to survey@think-irn.com.


AUTOMOTIVE INTELLIGENCE: SNAPSHOTS
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AUTOFUTURES® SUBSCRIBER ALERTS:
Posted by THE AIP TEAM on 7/26/2010

IRN's OEM Assembly Operations Tracking Report (released on July 23, 2010)
IRN has updated its tracking report that lists all North American OEM assembly plants and any scheduled or anticipated plans for downtime or closing. We are always looking for feedback or any plant shutdown updates that you can forward on to us.  Please feel free to send either to auto-intelligence@think-irn.com.

The North American Industry Results for June 2010 (July 22) are now available through your Autofutures Live account.

IRN's Q2 June 2010 Product Lifecycle Report (July 16)
IRN has updated its product lifecycle report that is published with each monthly forecast update. You can access this by logging into your AF LIVE account and visiting the WELCOME page. This document titled, Q2 June 2010 Product Launches, shows up under the section titled OTHER DOCUMENTS for your reference.

IRN's Q2 June 2010 Forecast Report (July 14)
The North American monthly forecast report is now available. In addition to the normal SUMMARY Of Changes (shows only the significant adjustments we made), we are also including a COMPLETE List Of Changes (shows every change "by vehicle").

As always, if you have any questions or concerns, feel free to give us a call at (616) 785-5175. 

Sincerely,
IRN's Automotive Intelligence Products Team

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